- A reduction in labor supply could reduce the quality of labor, with workers putting in less effort, or doing less to maintain their skills, or become less attached to the labor market. This tends to reduce cash earnings per hour because each hour is less productive. These have been major factors in the analysis of women's wages, where most economist believe that women's hourly earnings increased as a consequence of supplying more (see Becker 1985, Goldin and Katz 2002, Mulligan and Rubinstein 2008, and many others). See also some of the literature on unemployment insurance such as Ljungqvist and Sargent's paper on European unemployment.
- A reduction in labor supply or demand could increase the average quality of labor through a composition bias. See p. 17ff of my book and the references cited therein.
- Because of fringe benefits, cash hourly earnings are not the same as employer cost. As employer health insurance expenditure has been growing over time, the growth of cash hourly earnings has substantially under-estimated the growth of employer cost.
Friday, September 5, 2014
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Friday, August 29, 2014
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
3.2% last quarter
0.2% last two quarters (i.e., 2013-Q4 through 2014-Q2)
1.1% last three quarters
1.7% last four quarters
Note that the 0.2% does not use any data from the "bad winter" (2014-Q1): it is just the annualized percentage difference between 2013-Q4 and 2014-Q2.
Friday, June 6, 2014
+217 establishment survey
-213 unincorporated self-employed
-109 agricultural workers (excluding self-employed)
-105 National employment change
[The average monthly change since December 2013 has been +152: just keeping up with population growth. The avg monthly change in 2013 was +171. This employment measure has increased 36 out of the past 40 months (going back to 2010, not counting this month). This month's change is 1.9 standard deviations below the average change since 2010.]
[2010 was the labor-market's low point by most employment measures. But unincorp self-employment has fallen another 567,000 since then. If you use the establishment survey, you miss that.]
Monday, March 24, 2014
Just paid the Obamacare penalty for not 'getting covered'... I'M CALLING IT A LIBERTY TAX!— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) March 21, 2014
Here are the IRS instructions, where self-employed taxpayers are told to consider including their 2014 individual mandate penalty with their estimated tax payments beginning April 15, 2014.